There are three scenarios being murmured around the upcoming Swapo Congress. Though officially unconfirmed, they all leave the ruling party in a fix. It’s highly unlikely that all members from either team will make it through to the eventual Top 4.
Scenario 1: The walking Hage
In the event of a defeat, President Hage Geingob will likely resign and walk away within three months, leaving the Vice President of the Party to take charge.
Scenario 2: Party Constitutional Crisis
Team Swapo will not accept a defeat. A higher likelihood of a legal challenge looms which will drag and cripple any party appointments up to probably Cabinet where (Ministers Jerry Ekandjo etal) will be in Hage’s firing line.
Scenario 3: Incompatible bed-mates
Armas Amukwiyu is odds-on favourite from Team Swapo to claim victory against Sophia Shaningwa for the Secretary-General position. Shaningwa is the least-likely to emerge unscathed in Hage’s Top 4 team unless if she pulls one last miracle the remainder of this week when Hage takes his momentum to the Northern regions. If Shaningwa doesn’t pull all stocks together, a huge dilemma will emerge where President Hage and his arch-nemesis Secretary General Amukwiyu will have to try and work together. It looks impossible and despite being unconfirmed, these projections are but some of the top three permutations that the secret-ballot at Swapo Congress might presence us, at the cost of the ruling Party.